Critical minerals, critical choices: Navigating US tariffs, Chinese dominance and African sovereignty

The global landscape for critical minerals has undergone a fundamental transformation in 2025–2026, shifting from speculative interest to entrenched resource nationalism and intense geopolitical competition. Central to this shift is the Group of Twenty (G20) Critical Minerals Framework, adopted at the 2025 Johannesburg Summit, which seeks to reconcile the Global North’s urgent demand for energy-transition minerals with the industrial ambitions and sovereignty of the Global South. For South Africa and Namibia, the framework represents a precursor to far-reaching legislative overhauls mandating local beneficiation and strengthening national development objectives.